In the two sessions, which passed the most important political trend in China, the international community’s focus over the past week has been Beijing’s sudden announcement that it will consider drafting the formulation of Hong Kong’s National Security Law. Many Chinese observers described the shock as a nuclear bomb.
It is expected that this bill will be announced at the closing ceremony of the National People’s Congress of China on Thursday (May 28). According to the draft report by the Beijing authorities, the Beijing central government will establish a national security agency in Hong Kong. As soon as this news came out, Hong Kong and the international community immediately worried that it would violate Hong Kong‘s Basic Law and erode Hong Kong‘s fundamental freedom and a high degree of autonomy.
Beijing seems to no longer care about possible Hong Kong protests and rebounds, US sanctions, and economic impact. It uses some analysis to call bottom-line thinking to push Hong Kong to the battlefield of international gaming.
Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a professor in the Department of Politics and International Relations of Hong Kong Baptist University, told the Chinese analysis that Beijing’s choice to act at this time is a perfect time.
But why did Beijing launch the Hong Kong National Security Law at this time? In the current international environment, to what extent can Western countries support Hong Kong‘s pursuit of freedom participate in this game?
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Perfect timing in Beijing
The pandemic of the new coronavirus has plunged many countries into crisis. Officials from various countries are too busy dealing with the epidemic in their own countries and have no time to look around. Hong Kong is also affected by the epidemic, and regulations do not gather more than eight people in public places. Protests lasting six months last year are not yet known. This is what Gao Jingwen calls perfect timing.
In addition, Gao Jingwen also believes that adopting the new National Security Law before the September Legislative Council election will help prevent pan-democrats from being elected.
In November last year, the Hong Kong Democrats won a significant victory in the District Council elections during a large-scale protest movement against the revision of the Fugitive Offenders Ordinance. Analysts believe that the camp that criticizes Beijing will also prevail in this legislative election.
Xia Ming, a professor of political science at the City University of New York, also believed during the Chinese visit that Beijing s introduction of the Hong Kong National Security Law at this time has an opportunistic solid character.
Mainland China Confluence of Democracy and People’s Livelihood
However, Xia Ming believes that this does not mean that Beijing is adopting an offensive strategy against Hong Kong. It is a “defensive measure” taken because of the deep fear of threatening the security of the political system. This is closely related to the current political and economic situation in China.
Xia Ming said that in the past 40 years, the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist regime had been mainly sustained by domestic economic growth. This year, the Chinese economy has been hit hard by the epidemic. Therefore, it has become a “crucial test for the Chinese regime.
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang read out the government work report at the May 22 National People’s Congress meeting, which clearly stated that China does not set a GDP growth target for 2020. This is the first time in 30 years that China has no economic growth target, which means that China’s financial recovery process is complicated and facing unpredictable effects.
Xia Ming believes that this is “the first merger of democratic and livelihood appeals” in the past 40 years. In the past, most Chinese intellectuals and elites spoke for the working people at the bottom, including the requirement to abolish the deportation system and improve the rights and treatment of migrant workers. The impact of the new crown epidemic has affected the survival of many people in China. Many people realize that without freedom of information, people may pay the price for their lives.
In this case, Beijing is worried that if Hong Kong continues to be an economic, political, and cultural enclave beyond the control of the CCP, it will cause considerable shock to the CCP’s ideology. Xia Ming said.
It is not difficult to understand that although China’s economy has suffered setbacks, its defense spending has continued to grow. At the two sessions, the Chinese government revealed that China’s defense budget would increase by 6.6% yearly in 2020.
Wu Qian, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, said that China faces new risks and challenges in national security. The anti-secession struggle situation is more complicated. He emphasized that China must calculate both the financial account and the security account when considering the federal defense budget.